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The military junta in Myanmar is currently facing at least four major coordinated military operations being launched by different ethnic groups with the help of pro-democratic militia groups called themselves the People Defence Forces (PDF). PDFs were established after the military coup three years ago.
Although these military operations are aimed at uprooting dictatorship and installing a civilian government that will transform the country into a federal democratic union, however, they are threatening the decades of dominance by the people with Burmese and Buddhist identities in Myanmar.
It is a fact that Myanmar has never been a unitary state under the absolute control of a single government since the country’s independence from British rule in 1948. The central government has no control over some of the ethnic regions, which were mostly under the authority of the ethnic armed organizations that have been fighting the central government since the country's independence for self-determination of their respective ethnic and religious identities.
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Key Highlights
All the major developments in Myanmar this month (November) were dominated by the successes militarily by the Ethnic Armed Organizations and the civilian defence forces against the military junta. It was an unprecedented military operation that has made Myanmar's military most vulnerable both militarily and politically since the late 1940s.
The Brotherhood Alliance which is led by China baked the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance (MNDAA) is making gains on several fronts in Northern Shan State since the military campaign dubbed as “Operation 1027” for its start date, has been launched. Other members of the alliance are the T’ang Palaung National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA). Many areas have fallen under the control of the alliance including the Kokang Region on the border with China. Many analysts now say that the operation got tacit support from China.
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The current junta led by Min Aung Hlaing completed 1000 days in office on 27 October 2023 and the recent incidents tend to indicate that the junta is currently on the back foot in terms of its capacity to control the country and the international outrage against the atrocities it is committing against the people of Myanmar.
The junta lost control of a major border trading post on the Myanmar-China border and four other towns in Northern Shan State in concerted attacks by an alliance of ethnic armies, called the Brotherhood Alliance which started on 27 October. The operation is coded named "1027" in reference to the date it was started.
As the junta continued its atrocities against the civilians the United States, Canada, and the British government decided to impose new sanctions against the junta.
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It is beyond anyone’s doubt that almost all of Myanmar’s top generals are ruthless and corrupt tyrants. Those who are more ruthless and corrupt tend to be more powerful. This is a scenario that has existed in the Myanmar military since it was first introduced to political power in 1958, barely 17 years after its establishment. No top leaders in the Myanmar army ever lost their positions only for involvement in corruption, most of them lost due to their ambition for the leadership role.
When the news came about the sacking of two senior junta members Moe Myint Tun, a close confidante of Min Aung Hlaing who is relatively young and ambitious and Soe Htut, home affairs minister, who oversaw the hangings of four pro-democracy activists in July last year, it was received by most of the analysts that the junta is facing intense internal rivalry.
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The situation in Rakhine State should be closely watched in the coming days and weeks with the reports of possible renewed sectarian conflict targeting Rohingya Muslims. The concerns are raised as the reports indicate collaboration resumed between the junta and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) in Northern Rakhine State in recent weeks. Rohingya communities could become a scapegoat once again for such a collaboration as they were in 2017.
With the junta’s promise for an election is in a doldrum, and it has no solution on how to deal with rampant inflation in the country, it is expected that the junta will try to exploit the underlying ethnic crisis in Rakhine State to find a way out from the political crisis it created by itself.