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Two key developments that took place last October have contributed to the current economic troubles in Myanmar.
They are - announcements by the United States on the imposition of sanctions on Myanmar State-owned Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MoGE), a key source of foreign exchange for the junta and other is the beginning of “Operation 1027”, which not only put the junta on the back foot militarily, but it also gives a major blow to the junta’s source of income. The military operation by the Three Brotherhood Alliance that started on 27 October led the junta to lose the major border trading towns with China to the rebel groups.
According to some experts, the income from the sales of oil and gas amounts to more than US$1.5 billion in the financial year 2020-2021. The border trade with China accounts for USD 3 billion in 2023, up to 40 percent of the country's overall border trade figure.
Since last October the junta also lost control of most of the border trading points along the Thai, Indian and more recently with Bangladesh, to different rebel groups. The military losses to the ethnic armies also led to the loss of more than USD 7 billion per year in total border trade between Myanmar and its neighbours.
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INTRODUCTION
- As the conflict in Rakhine intensifies the United Nations says it expects a battle for the Rakhine State capital Sittwe between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army (AA). A statement issued by the High Commissioner of the UN Human Rights Commission (UNOHCHR) on 19 April[1] said ongoing conflict in Rakhine State put Rohingya Muslims at "grave risk". "The military has been fast losing ground to the Arakan Army (AA) throughout northern and central Rakhine. This has led to intensified fighting in the townships of Buthidaung and Maungdaw, ahead of an expected battle for the Rakhine State capital, Sittwe. The two townships are home to large Rohingya populations, putting them at grave risk, the statement said.
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During March, the junta lost more territories in Rakhine, Kayin and Kachin states, also hundreds of more junta troops were killed or surrendered. As a result of these military debacles, the junta now has no or limited land access to all the countries Myanmar shares the border.
As the concept of Burmese nationalism, based on which the Burmese army was established with the aid of fascist Japan in 1941, is now in the doldrums, its top leadership still survive in power somehow, however, an informed source in Nay Pyi Taw may be able to confirm that their days are numbered.
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The panic situation among the public in Myanmar due to the enactment of the conscription law on 10 February as well as more losses to the ethnic groups and dwindling support from the regional allies, has left the Min Aung Hlaing regime in the worst crisis since its forcibly took overpower more than three years ago. The regime embarked on the worst human rights violations since it took overpower and unleashed unprecedented levels of brutality against the people of Myanmar. According to some estimates, the regime killed nearly 5000 opponents during the past three years.
In addition, the regime has created the worst economic crisis for Myanmar in modern times, with soaring inflation, and power and fuel shortages. The situation of the minority groups continues to worsen with the Rohingya and Kaman Muslims forcibly conscripted in Rakhine State.
Despite these facts, the regime survives for now.
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In a recent interview with BBC, the leader of AA, Twan Mrat Naing, spelt out, AA’s policy on Rohingya. He said all the residents of Rakhine State should have equal rights including the right to citizenship, however, the people of Rakhine may need more time to accept Muslims with their ethnic name Rohingya. He said as Rohingya are claiming that their ancestry in Rakhine State dates back to the 10th century, it would not go down well with the Rakhine people who think that they are the earliest inhabitants in the state. But one positive point mentioned by Twan Mrat Naing was that any approach to the Rohingya issue will be a rights-based approach and through democratic norms. However, in a recent incident with regard to the mistreatment of Rohingya by AA, the rebel group launched their attack against the Burmese military from the Rohingya village, drawing fire from the Burmese military against civilians. As many as 40 homes were destroyed, several were injured, and there are reports of deaths of many Rohingya civilians. This incident took place on 26 January.
While the junta faces defeats and debacles on the battlefield, however, it continues to maintain a status quo in terms of holding on to power. The junta boss seemed to have saved his job for now. A sham constitutional grouping the Defence and Security Council extended the mandate of the junta until August 2024. The sixth time to do so since the coup in 2021.