- Hits: 814
It was widely anticipated in late June that the fall of Lashio, the capital of Northern Shan State was inevitable. In addition, the ethnic groups made significant advances in the entire northern Shan State and elsewhere, by capturing Mogoke and Moemeik during the month of July.
The main group controlling Lashio now is the Myanmar National Democratic Army (MNDAA) which is dominated by the members of the Kokang ethnic group. According to some estimates, the total number of Kokang ethnic groups currently living in Myanmar is only 150,000 people, and 90 percent of them are Han Chinese. MNDA is a part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that has been making significant territorial gains since they started a coordinated attack on the military regime last October.
As Lashio, other strategic towns in the country Mogyoke, the centre of the country’s ruby mining town and the nearby town of Moemeik have fallen into the hands of the rebel group Ta’ang Palaung National Liberation Army (TNLA) another member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance in July.
Many would think these developments in Northern Shan State are only defeat for the junta, which is currently in power, however, the historical perspective tends to indicate that the capture of Lashio and other towns in Shan State is a resounding defeat for the entire Bama nationalism, which dominated in Shan State since the 16th century.
- Hits: 825
Operation 1027 resumed this month in Northern Rakhine State which indicates China’s tolerance of the regime in Nay Pyi Taw has gone thinner. Just days after the operation resumed one of the members of the Brotherhood Alliance, which is reading the operation, Ta’ang Palaung Liberation Army (TNLA) said it is poised to take control of two major towns in Northern Shan State, Naungchio and Kyaukmae. Now they are moving toward Pyi Oo Lwin, the town which hosts the junta’s biggest military training institute. Other priced targets the alliance is targeting are the capital of Northern Shan State Lashio also the headquarters of the regime Northeastern Command, and Mandalay, the seat of Burma's last king.
In the west another member of the alliance the Arakan Army (AA) is making further gains this month, now they control the second-largest city in the State, Thandwe.
It is no secret that the Chinese government at the highest level is backing these rebel groups fighting the regime led by Min Aung Hlaing, whom Beijing most despise among so-called Myanmar leaders.
China perhaps may be looking for how to maintain stability in Myanmar in the post-Min Aung Hlaing era, they seek support from former leaders of Myanmar including a reformist former president U Thein Sein in trying to keep the country united after the current conflict ended.
- Hits: 874
Two key developments that took place last October have contributed to the current economic troubles in Myanmar.
They are - announcements by the United States on the imposition of sanctions on Myanmar State-owned Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MoGE), a key source of foreign exchange for the junta and other is the beginning of “Operation 1027”, which not only put the junta on the back foot militarily, but it also gives a major blow to the junta’s source of income. The military operation by the Three Brotherhood Alliance that started on 27 October led the junta to lose the major border trading towns with China to the rebel groups.
According to some experts, the income from the sales of oil and gas amounts to more than US$1.5 billion in the financial year 2020-2021. The border trade with China accounts for USD 3 billion in 2023, up to 40 percent of the country's overall border trade figure.
Since last October the junta also lost control of most of the border trading points along the Thai, Indian and more recently with Bangladesh, to different rebel groups. The military losses to the ethnic armies also led to the loss of more than USD 7 billion per year in total border trade between Myanmar and its neighbours.
- Hits: 1137
INTRODUCTION
- As the conflict in Rakhine intensifies the United Nations says it expects a battle for the Rakhine State capital Sittwe between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army (AA). A statement issued by the High Commissioner of the UN Human Rights Commission (UNOHCHR) on 19 April[1] said ongoing conflict in Rakhine State put Rohingya Muslims at "grave risk". "The military has been fast losing ground to the Arakan Army (AA) throughout northern and central Rakhine. This has led to intensified fighting in the townships of Buthidaung and Maungdaw, ahead of an expected battle for the Rakhine State capital, Sittwe. The two townships are home to large Rohingya populations, putting them at grave risk, the statement said.
- Hits: 828
During March, the junta lost more territories in Rakhine, Kayin and Kachin states, also hundreds of more junta troops were killed or surrendered. As a result of these military debacles, the junta now has no or limited land access to all the countries Myanmar shares the border.
As the concept of Burmese nationalism, based on which the Burmese army was established with the aid of fascist Japan in 1941, is now in the doldrums, its top leadership still survive in power somehow, however, an informed source in Nay Pyi Taw may be able to confirm that their days are numbered.