Summary of Monthly Situation

In September 2025, the Myanmar military junta continued laying the groundwork for a tightly controlled first phase of polling scheduled for December, while deepening repression to eliminate scrutiny. The Union Election Commission approved nearly 5,000 candidates under restrictive conditions, barred 56 townships outright, and imposed severe penalties, including against minors, for criticism or perceived disruption of the vote. These developments coincided with the expansion of state surveillance built into national telecom networks, allowing authorities to trace online activity and target individuals for arrest. Taken together, these measures are not designed to reflect the will of the people, but to create the appearance of legitimacy while shielding those in power from scrutiny or accountability.

In August, the junta reorganized its rule under the SSPC while widening coercive legislation and surveillance, tightening control over civic space and election preparations. The National Defence and Security Council dissolved the SAC and installed the SSPC under Min Aung Hlaing, then declared a new emergency and martial law in 63 townships. The junta-run Union Election Commission announced a first phase of polling on 28 December 2025. In parallel, the junta activated the Election Protection Law, adopted a Military Secrets law carrying life imprisonment or the death penalty, brought the Cybersecurity Law into force, and suspended key privacy protections. Enforcement in Mandalay through phone searches and PSMS identity screening showed how these measures operate in practice. Together they expand detention, surveillance, and censorship powers and create conditions that cannot support a credible vote.

In July 2025, Myanmar’s military junta escalated repression through new laws aimed at silencing dissent and tightening control over civic space. The Cybersecurity Law, now in force, grants the authorities broad powers to monitor, censor, and criminalize online activity, including extraterritorially. The newly enacted election “protection” law imposes severe criminal penalties, including the death penalty, for criticism or peaceful opposition to the junta’s planned elections, further undermining political rights and press freedom.

Serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law continued across multiple regions, including deliberate attacks on civilians, religious and educational sites, and health facilities, as well as arbitrary detention, torture, and forced labor. In northern Rakhine State, new investigations by Human Rights Watch and Fortify Rights document grave abuses by the Arakan Army (AA) against Rohingya civilians, including killings, beheadings, torture, forced recruitment of children, and severe restrictions on movement and livelihoods. These abuses, combined with the junta’s blockade on aid, have driven the largest movement of Rohingya to Bangladesh since 2017.

The humanitarian situation in Bangladesh’s refugee camps is deteriorating sharply. More than 150,000 new arrivals over the past 18 months are straining already limited resources, with the UN Refugee Agency warning of imminent cuts to health and food assistance unless the current 65 percent funding gap is urgently closed.

In June, Myanmar’s junta accelerated preparations for a so-called “national election,” openly exploiting the language of democratic transition to consolidate authoritarian rule. Announced for late 2025 or early 2026, the election plan has no legal basis under international law and violates Myanmar’s constitutional norms, as the military seized power unlawfully and has since dissolved nearly all opposition parties, including the National League for Democracy. The junta-controlled Union Election Commission (UEC) has initiated voter list compilation and showcased electronic voting machines in an attempt to simulate legitimacy, while redrawing township boundaries to fabricate administrative control over contested territory.

Despite controlling only a fraction of the country, an estimated 79 townships are active conflict zones, and over 140 are under resistance control, the junta claims the capacity to hold elections in 267 townships. In Karenni State, where over 90 percent of territory is administered by the Karenni Interim Government, junta forces have staged election “workshops” under armed guard. In Shan State, military-aligned militias have forcibly relocated entire communities in apparent preparation for polling, while residents in junta-controlled areas report coercion and fear of reprisal for refusing to participate.

In May 2025, Myanmar’s military junta continued its campaign of deliberate attacks on civilians, deploying increasingly lethal tactics while systematically obstructing aid to earthquake-affected communities. The junta’s use of internationally banned cluster munitions on a school in Sagaing Region, killing 22 children and two teachers, was one of the deadliest single attacks on an education site since the 2021 coup and reflects a growing pattern of direct targeting of civilians and civilian objects in non-combat zones. Throughout the month, BHRN documented repeated junta airstrikes on schools, homes, weddings, monasteries, mosques, and displacement camps, as well as mass arbitrary arrests, enforced disappearances, and the denial of humanitarian assistance to those most in need.

The junta’s violence was mirrored by escalating abuses carried out by the Arakan Army (AA) in northern Rakhine State. In areas under AA control, Rohingya civilians were forcibly evicted, beaten, conscripted into forced labor, and denied access to medical care. Religious sites were confiscated or destroyed, and at least two deadly sea journeys were traced back to AA-perpetrated abuses that pushed Rohingya civilians to flee. Survivors described being extorted, assaulted, and left with no option but to attempt passage to Bangladesh. These actions form part of a growing body of evidence that the AA is systematically targeting the Rohingya population and committing crimes against humanity.