February 2024 - Summary of Monthly Situation Update

1Info-graphs of BHRN’s Report

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2Editor's Note

INTRODUCTION

The panic situation among the public in Myanmar due to the enactment of the conscription law on 10 February as well as more losses to the ethnic groups and dwindling support from the regional allies, has left the Min Aung Hlaing regime in the worst crisis since its forcibly took overpower more than three years ago. The regime embarked on the worst human rights violations since it took overpower and unleashed unprecedented levels of brutality against the people of Myanmar. According to some estimates, the regime killed nearly 5000 opponents during the past three years.

In addition, the regime has created the worst economic crisis for Myanmar in modern times, with soaring inflation, and power and fuel shortages. The situation of the minority groups continues to worsen with the Rohingya and Kaman Muslims forcibly conscripted in Rakhine State.

Despite these facts, the regime survives for now.

CONTEXT

In response to the defeat of several ethnic armies, the junta enacted the conscription law, to increase its strength in fighting against the ethnic armed organizations. Also, to bolster its strength, the junta reenacted a law that allowed its civil servants to take up arms. However, these policies backfired, as they led the country to plunge into further chaos.

After the conscription law was introduced increasing numbers of Myanmar youths tried to flee the country to the neighbouring countries, especially Thailand, which allowed visa-free access to Myanmar citizens for two weeks. This incident coincides with the quasi-civilian government of Thailand starting to show more interest in the internal affairs of its neighbour.

For a shorter-term interest, more influx of Myanmar refugees is welcome for many Thai industries that require cheap labour, but in the longer term, it is going to have an impact on the job opportunities for Thais. In a longer-term strategic interest for Thailand, the latest situation in Myanmar offers an opportunity for Thailand to exercise more influence in the internal affairs of its long-term adversary Myanmar.

The Thai government is indicating its interest in establishing a humanitarian coordinator along the Myanmar-Thai border for the refugees fleeing Myanmar, and it called on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which both Thailand and Myanmar, to help enforce a safe humanitarian zone for Myanmar refugees.

A seminar on Myanmar was organised recently by the Thai Parliament brainstorming on the possible role of Bangkok in resolving the crisis in Myanmar. Some of the participants of the seminar even started to think about how the situation in Myanmar would look like in the post-Min Aung Hlaing era. Also, the participants reportedly discussed where Min Aung Hlaing could flee to apply for political asylum.

They reportedly said Thailand could be one option in the mind of the brutal Myanmar regime leader to flee if indeed he is thinking of doing so.

Thailand’s role in Myanmar’s internal affairs has always been underrated when compared to China and the Western powers. But historically, the Thai influence on Myanmar, both politically and economically, has been very significant. Moreover, Thailand sees Myanmar as its rival and Thailand is ethnically linked to at least two major ethnic groups of Myanmar, Shan and Mon. These facts also make Thailand an influential regional actor when it comes to settling of political crisis in Myanmar. Thailand allows these ethnic groups and their sympathizers to operate within Thailand.

Thailand’s position towards the regime in Myanmar has gradually moved toward a more hardline in recent months, which could be due to the previous pro-military government in Thailand being replaced with an elected civilian government last September. It could not be a mere coincidence that the policy shift by Bangkok towards Myanmar comes after a visit by the US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, to Thailand in late January. During the visit, he reportedly had a discussion on the Myanmar crisis with the Thai Prime Minister, Srettha Thevenin

This is not the only episode related to Myanmar’s chaotic internal politics in recent weeks. China, which used to be a key supporter of the regime in Myanmar in the past, is trying to exercise its influence over the northeastern parts of Myanmar, and in recent weeks the Chinese-backed Myanmar ethnic rebels have controlled several townships in the region.

Operation 1027 launched by the pro-Chinese rebels, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, last October, has created a turning point in the battle for control of the areas along the Sino-Myanmar border region. These groups are now at the striking of the capital of Northern Shan State Lashio, and the Myanmar military’s garrison town of Pyin Oo Lwin. It seems that these rebel groups are waiting for a green light from Beijing to take over Lashio and Pyin Oo Lwin. With the fall of these two strategic towns for the Myanmar military, the entire northeast will be cut off from the rest of the country.

China’s dislike for Min Aung Hlaing is well known, it dates back to the time when Min Aung Hlaing led a brutal attack against a Chinese rebel group in the Kokang Region on the border with China in 2009. Also, since Min Aung Hlaing became the head of the Myanmar military in 2011, he cultivated a close tie with Russia, which also mostly replaced China as a major supplier of arms to the Myanmar regime.

Due to these facts, Min Aung Hlaing may not be considering China as a destination for him to seek asylum. Moreover, there have been rumours that China is considering issuing an arrest warrant against Min Aung Hlaing and his family for their alleged involvement with online scammers operating along the Myanmar-China border. Beijing has been asking the regime in Nay Pyi Taw to reign in on these groups, however, Min Aung Hlaing failed to do so, and he is accused of protecting these groups. Such a slow response from Min Aung Hlaing has led the pro-Chinese groups.

How about India? will the Modi regime, which is known for its pro-regime and heavy-hand approach toward the pro-democracy activists in Myanmar grant political asylum to Min Aung Hlaing? Most of the analyst who understands India’s foreign policy would say no to the possibility of such a scenario.

The support to the Min Aung Hlaing regime by the Modi government could further erode India’s credential as the world's largest democracy.

Will Min Aung Hlaing be purged?

Many political analysts at this stage rule out a possible regime change in Myanmar, and they predict that Min Aung Hlaing to remain as the head of the regime for some time.

Ye Myo Hein, executive director of the Tagaung Institute of Political Studies (TIPS), and a global fellow with the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, told UK’s Guardian newspaper recently that Min Aung Hlaing cannot fall at this stage regardless, the military faces unprecedented battlefield challenges.

“For the first time in history, the military now faces simultaneous attacks from armed resistance of various types, ranging from conventional warfare to guerrilla tactics and from overt to covert operations, in 12 out of Myanmar’s 14 states and regions,” he said adding that there are reports that at senior levels there is growing frustration at the military leadership, the Guardian reported.

Despite this, Ye Myo Hein says it is highly unlikely that Min Aung Hlaing could be ousted as junta chief. “The military’s institutional culture, nurtured over seven decades, has established a feudal system with its top leader in the most powerful position,” he added.

Even if there were to be a change of leadership, some fear the alternative could be even more violent, he predicted.

However, it could be argued by looking at the precedents of the past like the overthrow of then-military leader Saw Maung, by his deputy Than Shwe, with the blessing of former dictator Nay Win in 1992. Also, corruption and abuse of power led to the downfall of powerful military intelligence chief Khin Nyunt in 2004. Khin Nyunt's downfall comes even though the power he was holding at the time of his purge was far stronger than what Min Aung Hlaing possesses today. Also, Khin Nyunt a half-Chinese was close to China when he was in power.

It is important to understand that there is no cardinal policy within the Myanmar military when it comes to power dynamic, Burmese supremacy is the only possible doctrine applicable in the Myanmar military, and in extreme cases, it can be best described that the Burmese military leaders adopt a dog-eat-dog kind of culture when its come to power struggle among the top brass.

Conflict in Rakhine

What has happened in the past few weeks was the worst for the Min Aung Hlaing regime in its three years in office and the past few weeks were perhaps the most humiliating period for the Myanmar army since the 1950s, when it was challenged by the Karen rebel in the outskirt of Yangon, that led the government at that time to be mocked as the “Yangon government”.

However, the defeat the Arakan Army (AA) inflicted on the Myanmar military in recent battles in Rakhine State was perhaps the most significant blow ever to be inflicted on the Myanmar army in its 83 years of existence.

AA continued its offensive throughout the state in February by claiming victory in Ponnagyun city, which sits just 24 kilometres (15 miles) east of the capital city, Sittwe. The rebel army has captured six townships across Rakhine state and another in neighbouring Chin state to the north since breaking a year-long ceasefire last November.

It is a significant achievement for AA if they could control Sittwe, the rebel group will become the only ethnic armed group fighting the Myanmar regime in more than 80 years to control a provisional capital. AA which was established in in late 2000s is a relatively younger organisation compared to the fellow ethnic armed organizations in Myanmar, most of whom were established in the late 1940s or 1950s.

The significant victory for AA is very much due to the support it has received from the Rakhine people in the state, who have traditionally held extreme hatred towards the Burmese.

The Rakhine State (or Arakan, as it was called then) was an independent State until it was invaded by Burman King Bowdawpaya in 1784 and annexed to the Burman Kingdom. The Rakhine king together with the tens of thousands of Rakhine people were slaughtered by the Burmese king during the invasion.

AA's key aim is to fight for the sovereignty of Rakhine, although it ruled out at this stage leaving the union, however, Rakhine would be among the ethnic groups in Myanmar, that would most actively seek stronger ethnic and territorial rights even if they decided to remain in the union or a future federal political structure.

While the regime facing defeat in fighting with AA, they are asking the displaced Rohingya community to join the Myanmar military. Such a move could be described as a brazen act of disrespect towards Rohingya people. Only as late as 2017, it was the same Myanmar military that committed acts of genocide against Rohingya people and now the same group is asking Rohingya to join the join force with the Myanmar military.

Meanwhile, the UN rights chief Volker Türk called the current crisis in Myanmar a “never-ending nightmare”. He commented in an address to the UN Human Rights Commission meeting on 1 March. He said the current crisis in Myanmar is contributed by the ethnic and religious tension ignited by the Myanmar military.

Mr Türk accused the Myanmar military of using the ultra-nationalist militias to stoke inter-ethnic tensions. Linked to this, violence had reached unprecedented levels in Rakhine state, with reports that civilians had been shelled and displaced en masse.

While many observers in Myanmar would agree with Türk’s assessment of the situation, however, they may call such a statement at this stage "too little too late". The UN was warned at the height of anti-Muslim riots across Myanmar in 2012, that the Myanmar military was responsible for igniting sectarian violence in which many Muslims were killed and tens of thousands of others displaced. The UN failed to understand the complexity of the situation then and supported inter-ethnic harmony in the country.

Observation and Analysis

• By introducing the conscription law and asking civil servants to take up arms against their enemies, the junta showed its intent to fight back against all the odds. However, to regain absolute control of the situation the junta will need the support of the people of Myanmar and its traditional allies like China, it is lacking both at this stage.
• As the chaotic situation grows the neighbouring countries are naturally to become wearier of the possible spillover effects into their countries. The recent move by China to ask its ally, Myanmar ethnic armies (the Brotherhood Alliance) to control the border areas and the latest move by Thailand to establish a humanitarian corridor under the auspices of ASEAN are indications that these countries would like to protect their countries from possible negative impacts of the crisis in Myanmar.
• Throughout Myanmar’s political crisis since the late 1980s, the international community always has had a role to play. But in the current situation, it has become mere spectators, only the local actors are to decide on the fate of the country’s political future.
• It would be interesting to note when the international community thinks that Myanmar needs an international protection force and political support regime, that will try to bring all the warring factions to the table and constitute free and fair elections.

3Rohingya Issue

4Violations of Freedom of Religion and Belief

• 4 February

  A monk and 8 other people were injured in an airstrike by the junta on a village in Kanbalu Township in Sagaing Region on 1 February, a local activist group told Burma Human Rights Network (BHRN). He said the airstrike destroyed a monastery, a pagoda, and a congregation hall in Thintaw village in Kinabalu. He said it could have been more death and destruction had the other bombs dropped on the monastery exploded.

  Source: BHRN
• 6 February

  The junta abducted six monks from a village in Pulaw Township in Tanintharyi Region on 1 February, a local source told Burma Human Rights Network (BHRN). He said the monks from a monastery in Nan Payut village would be used as human shields to protect junta troops. The monks were arrested during a raid by the junta troops on the village, where they stayed in the monastery belonging to the six abducted monks.

  Source: BHRN
• 8 February

  The junta troops abducted a priest and several other civilians during a raid on a village in Phakant Township in Kachin State on 7 February, a local source told Burma Human Rights Network (BHRN). He said the house of Reverand. Rahi Tu Lwan was burned down after his arrest. The reason for the arrest was still unknown, the source said.

  Source: BHRN
• 8 February

  The junta is targeting monasteries in Hsi Hseng Township in Shan State where monks from the PaO ethnic group are based, a statement issued by an ethnic armed organisation, PaO National Liberation Army (PNLA) said. The statement said the junta shelled Htita Maung monastery which is situated only 7 miles from Hsi Hseng Town on 7 February in which a building in the monastery was destroyed. It said the junta attacked another monastery in Hsi Hseng Township a day earlier. The junta has been systemically destroying the places of religious significance of the PaO people in recent weeks after PNLA withdrew from the ceasefire agreement with the junta.

  Source: BHRN
• 13 February

  The junta arrested a monk in Leiwei Township in Mandalay Region for criticizing the rights abuse committed by the junta, a local source said. He said monk Ashin Nyan Neithara, who is based in a monastery in Leiwei Township, the site of the Mandalay International Airport which is also known as Aelar Airport. The junta currently jailed more than 20,000 political prisoners, among them 105 are monks.

  Source: Myanmar Now
• 15 February

  A pro-junta militant group Pyu Saw Htee killed a monk in Gangaw Township in Magwe Region on 12 February, a local source told Burma Human Rights Network (BHRN). He said U Pyinnya Wara (a.k.a) U Kyaw Zin Hlwar, 45, who is based in a monastery in Hanthawaddy village in Gangaw was invited by Pyu Saw Htee members to deliver a sermon on 12 February, the monk’s body was a return to his monastery a day later, the source said. The killing of the monk came after he encouraged Pyu Saw Htee forces based in Gangaw and nearby Kalay Region to surrender to the pro-democracy militant People Defence Forces (PDF).

  Source: BHRN
• 16 February

  A 25-year-old student of Christian Theology school in Kalay Township in Sagaing Region died on 10 February while he was under arrest by the junta troops, a media report said. The family of Salai Steven Kyin Lai Khan told Radio Free Asia on 15 February that he was arrested on 10 February and the junta informed the family that Salai Steven was dead and his body was cremated. The family source said Salai Steven was studying to become a Christian religious scholar.

  Source: RFA
• 27 February

  Two civilians including a monk were killed due to indiscriminate firing by police in Butalin Township in Sagaing Region on 26 February, a local pro-democracy militia group People Defence Force (PDF) said. A statement issued by Moneywa based no 20 Battalion of PDF said the civilians were killed near the main market of Butalin town. The group said the police burned down the market in which three electronic shops and 1 food stall were burned down.

  Source: BHRN

5Human Rights Violations